تقرير سوق النفط الخام

أصدرت هيئة الطاقة الدولية تقريرها عن السوق العالمي للنفط الخام متضمنا توقعاتها حول توازنات السوق حتى عام 2010، ومن خلال توقعات هيئة الطاقة العالمية يمكن القول بأن الهيئة تتوقع انه بحلول عام 2010 سوف يتزايد الطلب العالمي على النفط الخام بمعدلات محسوسة، مقارنة بعام 2008، في الوقت الذي يزداد فيه النفط من خارج دول الأوبك بصورة محدودة. معنى ذلك أن تطورات أسعار النفط في المستقبل سوف تعتمد على استراتيجيات الأوبك فيما يتعلق بحصص الإنتاج. وحتى هذه اللحظة من الواضح أن سيطرة الأوبك على الكميات المعروضة من النفط لا بأس بها. سوف تحتاج الأوبك إذن في المستقبل إلى مزيد من التنسيق إذا أرادت أن تحافظ على أسعار النفط في إطار مستهدفات محددة تتوافق مع معدلات النشاط الاقتصادي العالمي واحتياجات المالية العامة فيها.

World Oil Supply and Demand

(million barrels per day)

	2006	2007	1Q08	2Q08	3Q08	4Q08	2008	1Q09	2Q09	3Q09	4Q09	2009	1Q10	2Q10	3Q10	4Q10	2010
OECD DEMAND
North America	25.4	25.5	24.8	24.4	23.6	23.9	24.2	23.5	22.6	22.7	22.9	22.9	23.6	23.1	23.0	23.0	23.2
Europe	15.7	15.3	15.3	15.0	15.4	15.3	15.3	14.9	14.2	14.8	14.8	14.7	14.9	14.2	14.7	14.7	14.6
Pacific	8.5	8.4	8.9	7.9	7.5	8.0	8.1	8.1	7.2	7.0	7.5	7.5	8.1	7.1	6.9	7.4	7.4
Total OECD	49.5	49.2	49.0	47.3	46.6	47.2	47.5	46.6	44.0	44.6	45.2	45.1	46.6	44.4	44.6	45.1	45.2
NON-OECD DEMAND
FSU	4.0	4.1	4.3	4.1	4.3	4.1	4.2	4.0	3.9	4.1	4.1	4.0	4.1	4.0	4.2	4.2	4.1
Europe	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
China	7.2	7.6	7.9	8.0	8.1	7.6	7.9	7.7	8.4	8.0	7.9	8.0	8.0	8.6	8.3	8.3	8.3
Other Asia	9.0	9.5	9.9	9.9	9.4	9.5	9.7	9.9	9.7	9.4	9.6	9.6	10.1	9.9	9.6	9.8	9.9
Latin America	5.4	5.7	5.7	6.0	6.0	5.9	5.9	5.7	5.9	6.0	6.0	5.9	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.1	6.1
Middle East	6.3	6.5	6.7	7.1	7.6	6.9	7.1	6.7	7.3	7.8	7.2	7.2	7.0	7.6	8.1	7.5	7.6
Africa	3.0	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.1	3.3	3.2	3.4	3.3	3.2	3.4	3.3
Total Non-OECD	35.7	37.3	38.5	39.0	39.3	38.1	38.7	37.9	39.1	39.0	38.7	38.7	39.3	40.3	40.4	40.1	40.0
Total Demand1	85.2	86.5	87.5	86.3	85.8	85.3	86.2	84.4	83.1	83.6	83.9	83.8	85.9	84.7	85.0	85.2	85.2
OECD SUPPLY
North America	14.2	14.3	14.2	14.0	13.6	13.8	13.9	14.2	13.8	13.8	14.0	14.0	14.3	14.1	13.8	14.2	14.1
Europe	5.3	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.9	4.4	4.1	4.4	4.4	4.3	4.0	3.9	4.1	4.1
Pacific	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.7
Total OECD	20.1	19.9	19.7	19.5	18.8	19.3	19.3	19.7	18.9	18.6	19.0	19.1	19.3	18.8	18.4	19.1	18.9
NON-OECD SUPPLY
FSU	12.2	12.8	12.8	12.9	12.7	12.7	12.8	12.8	13.1	12.9	12.9	13.0	13.1	13.3	13.0	13.3	13.2
Europe	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
China	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.7	3.8	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.9	3.9	3.9	4.0	3.9
Other Asia2	3.8	3.7	3.7	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.8
Latin America2	3.9	3.9	4.1	4.1	4.2	4.2	4.1	4.3	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.8	4.7
Middle East	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6
Africa2	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Total Non-OECD	28.0	28.5	28.7	28.7	28.6	28.7	28.7	28.8	29.2	29.2	29.2	29.1	29.5	29.7	29.6	30.0	29.7
Processing Gains3	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Other Biofuels4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Total Non-OPEC5	50.4	50.9	51.0	50.8	50.1	50.7	50.6	51.2	50.7	50.5	50.9	50.8	51.5	51.1	50.7	51.7	51.2
Non-OPEC Historical Composition2	51.3	50.3	49.9	49.8	49.1	49.6	49.6	51.2	50.7	50.5	50.9	50.8	51.5	51.1	50.7	51.7	51.2
OPEC
Crude6	30.7	30.3	31.5	31.4	31.5	30.5	31.2	28.5	28.5
NGLs	4.4	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.9	5.1	5.4	5.6	5.2	5.7	6.0	6.2	6.4	6.1
Total OPEC	35.2	34.9	36.1	36.0	36.2	35.3	35.9	33.4	33.6
OPEC Historical Composition2	34.3	35.4	37.1	37.0	37.2	36.4	36.9	33.4	33.6
Total Supply7	85.6	85.7	87.1	86.8	86.3	86.0	86.5	84.6	84.3
STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS
Reported OECD
Industry	0.2	-0.3	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.5
Government	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
Total	0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.7
Floating Storage/Oil in Transit	-0.1	0.0	0.3	0.0	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.5
Miscellaneous to balance8	0.1	-0.6	-0.8	0.2	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-1.0
Total Stock Ch. & Misc	0.3	-0.8	-0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1	1.2
Memo items:
Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch.9	30.4	31.1	31.9	30.9	31.1	29.9	30.9	28.4	27.3	27.8	27.5	27.7	28.7	27.6	28.1	27.1	27.9

 

1 Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning,

oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply

2 Other Asia includes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout.

Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January 2009. Non-OPEC Historical Composition excludes countries that were OPEC members at that point in time.

Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January 2009. OPEC Historical Composition comprises countries which were OPEC members at that point in time.

3 Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process (excludes net gain/loss in former USSR, China and non-OECD Europe) and marine transportation losses

4 Biofuels from sources outside Brazil and US.

5 Non-OPEC supplies include crude oil, condensates, NGL and non-conventional sources of supply such as synthetic crude, ethanol and MTBE.

No allowance is made in the non-OPEC forecast for exceptional events which have, at certain times historically, reduced non-OPEC supply by 300-400 kbd on an annual basis

6 As of the March 2006 OMR, Venezuelan Orinoco heavy crude production is included within Venezuelan crude estimates. Orimulsion fuel remains within the OPEC NGL &

non-conventional category, but Orimulsion production will reportedly cease from January 2007.

7 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply

8 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-OECD areas

9 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-OPEC supply minus OPEC NGLs

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